by John Mathews, North Region Economist
Note: Graphs and tables in the original publications are not included in the text versions.
While we’re waiting for the economy to perk up, let’s take a look at a very basic descriptor of our life, population. That’s “ us.” This issue of the newsletter will address the population and its components of change, namely, natural increase and net migration. Population change is the sum of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration. In Utah, we have the honor of holding two population records in the nation: lowest median age; and highest growth rate. Let’s make that four records and add fertility rate and average family size to the mix. Utah median age (2008) was 28.5 years (the U.S. is 36.6 with Texas next closest at 34 years). Its rate of growth is 2.5 percent. Its fertility rate (average number of children) is 2.5 births per female in her lifetime, and its family size 3.11 persons.
Is population growth all home grown? No, it’s influenced by some other phenomenon: net migration. Net migration is primarily dependent upon economic activity. When our economy is strong and adding new jobs, the labor supply to fill these jobs comes from not only our in-house natural increase but from outside the state as word spreads that there are jobs in Utah.
On the following pages are the graphs of the components of population change from 1950 to 2008, first for the state and then for each of the three counties in the Bear River region. You can just look at the graphs and note that the economy was doing well when we had net in migration. Note the dotted line is the level of natural increase by year and if you add the solid area total to the natural increase total you get the dark line total. Also in a box on the graph is the total number of people in the county for 1950 and 2008.
In the Bear River region most aging Baby Boomers will remember the aerospace crash of the early 1960s in Box Elder County. This is obvious by the drop in net migration as workers and their families left the area when jobs dried up. Since then Box Elder has experienced some down times, particularly during the 1980s as the state was in a slowdown.
In Cache County a strong economic base yielded positive net migration through the 1990s and so far in the 2000 to 2008 period. Cache felt the pangs of the recession in the mid to late 1980s with net out migration. Natural increase in population has been strong since the turn of the century.
Rich County’s population change components appear to have been somewhat erratic since 1990 as shown in the graph. This jerkiness is to some extent due to the small numbers and difficulty in measuring the population change. The mid-1980s was a time of out migration in the county but of late population has been growing, albeit by small numbers.
Box Elder County News
Job losses accelerated during the fourth quarter of 2008. Over 1,000 positions were shed during the December 2007 to December 2008 period, a decline of -4.8 percent. Unemployment increased slightly to 6.4 percent (March 2009). Job counts in all three months dropped by at least 4.0 percent. The loss of a thousand jobs occurred in construction (-130), manufacturing (-485), transportation and warehousing (-240), accommodations and food services (-120), and local government (-370). Healthcare was about the only industry with year-over job growth. It added 192 persons to payrolls. Spending, as measured by gross taxable sales, declined about 3.0 percent in 2008 compared to 2007. Construction activity was off 40 percent in the number of permits and down nearly half in terms of total construction valuation comparing 2007 to 2008. Box Elder’s economy continues to slow as a result of the recession.
Cache County News
The employment situation worsened during the fourth quarter of 2008. Employment growth started positive but went into the red in November and December. Job losses of nearly 600 were felt. That’s a decline of 1.1 percent compared to December of 2007. Construction dropped 500 more jobs and manufacturing lost 660 (December). The message was mixed in the service-producing industries. Financial services and business services each experienced an increase of some 300 with healthcare adding about 350 slots. Leisure and hospitality was off by 180 jobs but job gains were felt in both state and local government. Consumer spending was down by two percent from 2007. Building activity continued its slide where permits were off 42 percent, as was total valuation of permitted construction. The county’s economy is feeling the recession in virtually all measures. Job losses are, however, not as deep as in other counties.
Rich County News
Unemployment in Rich County was 4.0 percent in March 2009. Job counts were up slightly in the December 2007 to December 2008 year-over period. Less than 10 jobs was the total net gain in that period. Construction lost 50 positions. These losses were offset somewhat by gains in healthcare (20) and leisure and hospitality (30). Spending by consumers during 2008 was 6.0 percent higher than for the calendar year 2007. Construction activity was a wash between 2007 and 2008 as the number of permits and valuation were virtually the same in both years. The recession has impacted the county but not as harshly as it has affected other counties across the state.
For more employment information about your county go to: http://jobs.utah.gov/jsp/wi/utalmis/gotoCounties.do and select your county, then go to Labor Market Indicators in the right-hand margin.
Wal-Mart said it has opened a temporary hiring center in Providence, Cache County, as it looks to hire about 340 employees to work at a new Supercenter in Logan. The new store is expected to open this spring. The company is hiring both full- and part-time employees for all areas of the store, including supervisory positions. Most will begin work in May to help prepare for a late-spring grand opening.
-Deseret News
ATK Launch Systems, following up on plans announced in February, handed pink slips to about 300 of its 5,000 Utah employees. ATK attributed the layoffs, shared among facilities in Box Elder County, Clearfield and Magna, to changes in the programs it works on for NASA and the Department of Defense. Those include the fading space shuttle and Minuteman missile programs, both of which have provided substantial work for ATK in Utah over the years.
-Standard Examiner
