by John Mathews, North Region Economist
Note: Graphs and tables in the original publications are not included in the text versions.
While we’re waiting for the economy to perk up, let’s take a look at a very basic descriptor of our life, population. That’s “ us.” This issue of the newsletter will address the population and its components of change, namely, natural increase and net migration. Population change is the sum of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration. In Utah, we have the honor of holding two population records in the nation: lowest median age and highest growth rate. Let’s make that four records and add fertility rate and average family size to the mix. Utah median age (2008) was 28.5 years (the U.S. is 36.6, with Texas next closest at 34 years). Its rate of growth is 2.5 percent. Its fertility rate (average number of children) is 2.5 births per female in her lifetime, and its family size 3.11 persons.
Is population growth all home grown? No, it’s influenced by some other phenomenon: net migration. Net migration is primarily dependant upon economic activity. When our economy is strong and adding new jobs, the labor supply to fill these jobs comes from not only our in-house natural increase but from outside the state as word spreads that there are jobs in Utah.
On the following pages are the graphs of the components of population change from 1950 to 2008, first for the state and then for each of the three counties in the Wasatch North Region. You can just look at the graphs and note that the economy was doing well when we had net in migration. Note the dotted line is the level of natural increase by year and if you add the solid area total to the natural increase total you get the dark line total. Also in a box on the graph is the total number of people in the county for 1950 and 2008.
In the Wasatch North Region, Davis County has experienced steady and fast-paced population growth over the 58 years shown in the graph. Population has increased almost 10-fold (31,000 to 302,000) during that time. Only in three years did out migration occur (1978, 1989 and1990). This growth was even steadier than the state as a whole.
Morgan County’s population has increased but not at the same pace as Davis County. Still it increased from about 2,500 to 9,600 over that period. Population has had varying periods of ins and outs between 1950 and 1990, even though the county overall grew. Since 1990 the economy and attractiveness of living in Morgan County has improved net migration to the area.
In Weber County, the changes in population and net migration have followed the economy. The graph shows a roughly 15-year period of out migration during the 1960s and 1970s followed by short period of in and out migration in the 1978 to 1990 period. Since 1990 the population change has all been positive with some years showing a slowdown in the economy. Net migration has been the real wild card in population change in the county. Overall, the population has increased from 85,000 to 225,000 in the 1950 to 2008 period.
Davis County News
There is no doubt the recession has had an impact on Davis County’s economy. Unemployment is increasing and job growth is gone. Comparing the December employment picture of 2008 to December of 2007 there are 2,400 fewer jobs. Unemployment is at 4.7 percent, up from 3.2 percent comparing March of 2008 to 2007. Large job losses were experienced in construction (-1,700), manufacturing (-830), retail trade (-420), business services (-310), and federal government (-650). On the plus side the following industries added jobs, education services (240) and healthcare (560). Spending was off by about 3.0 percent between all of 2007 and 2008. Construction or building activity was off 46 percent in the number of permits and 36 percent in the valuation of construction. It is clear that the economy in the county is slowing.
Morgan County News
There were fewer jobs in Morgan County in December 2008 than December 2007, by about 130. That’s a 6.6 percent rate of job loss. Unemployment was 5.1 percent in March of 2009, up from the 3.6 percent figure of last March. About 90 positions were lost in construction with 60 more in retail trade. Manufacturing gained a handful (10) of new jobs and local government added two dozen. Interesting to note was spending in 2008 was 11 percent higher than in 2007. Building activity was off by 58 percent in 2008 compared to 2007, as was the total valuation of construction permitting, which dropped by 53 percent. The county continues to slow as the recession affects both metro and rural Utah.
Weber County News
Job counts dropped by –2.3 percent in December 2008 compared with December of 2007. That’s a loss of 2,190 positions. Unemployment accelerated up to 6.4 percent (March 2009), an increase of 2.5 percentage points from a year ago (3.9 percent). As consumers slowed their spending, demand for workers fell and these losses were reflected in the following industries; construction (-1,260), manufacturing (-540), retail trade (-260), business services (-970), and hospitality (-340). A few industries added jobs: transportation and warehousing (120), healthcare (420), and government (680). Spending was off, as mentioned above, by 5.0 percent between 2007 and 2008. Construction activity was off but not nearly as far as the other two counties in the region. Permits fell 19 percent and total valuation was down 13 percent. The economy continues to tighten and is waiting for the recessionary pressures to abate.
For more employment information about your county go to: http://jobs.utah.gov/jsp/wi/utalmis/gotoCounties.do and select your county, then go to Labor Market Indicators in the right-hand margin.
Officials at Hill Air Force Base estimate nearly 300 new jobs will come to the Top of Utah with the announcement that the Ogden Air Logistics Center will perform depot maintenance on the Air Force’s two newest unmanned aerial vehicles. Utah’s congressional delegation announced that Hill would be awarded the maintenance contract for the MQ-1 Predator and the MQ-9 Reaper. The Predator and Reaper have been used heavily in the global war on terror to target improvised explosive devices.
-Standard Examiner
The federal government has notified Ogden City that it has accepted a 4-acre parcel downtown as the site for a proposed 150,000-square-foot Internal Revenue Service building. The U.S. General Services Administration’s approval of the site at 23rd Street and Lincoln Avenue is a significant step toward construction of the five-story building that could house as many as 500 IRS workers.
-Standard Examiner
