the outskirts | by jim robson, economist

The Recovery Needs to Continue

Over the last year or so, employment growth has strengthened in Utah as the recovery from the “Great Recession” continues. Let’s take stock of how Metro (1) Utah and Non-metro (2) Utah have fared in gaining back the jobs by industry lost during the recession.

Peak wage and salary payroll employment occurred in December of 2007 in Utah, with significant job losses being recorded during 2008 and 2009. In 2007, the year prior to the recession, there were on average 1,251,400 payroll jobs in Utah. 0f these, 92 percent (1,154,000) were in Metro Utah and eight percent (97,600) in Nonmetro Utah.

For the twelve months ending in June 2011, there were on average, 1,193,300 payroll jobs in Utah or about 58,100 fewer than the average for 2007. This is 4.6 percent below Utah’s peak employment prior to the recession. Of this job deficit, the Metro counties are 53,150 or 4.6 percent below their 2007 employment levels and the Non-metro counties are 4,950 jobs or 5.1 percent below their 2007 job count.

This analysis compares 2007 to the twelve months ending in June 2011; because when written in late Fall 2011, the June job numbers by county were the most recent wage and salary payroll counts that had been reported to Workforce Services.

If we divide payroll jobs into 24 separate industry categories, a picture emerges detailing which industries are leading in providing greater job opportunities and which industries have not recovered their 2007 job status. For Metro Utah, the industries that have the most ground to make up to reach their 2007 levels are construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. The industries that are well above 2007 levels with many new jobs are health care, private education, and public education. Of the 24 industry groups for Metro Utah, eight have more jobs and 16 have fewer jobs than in 2007.

In the Non-metro Utah counties, the industries with more jobs or fewer jobs than in 2007 is also eight to 16. Again those industries that still have the most jobs to make up in order to recover their 2007 levels are construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. The most new jobs are found in local government (excluding public education), health care, and administrative support (mostly temporary staffing agencies).

Finally, if we look at total payroll job growth by county, 16 counties added jobs from June 2010 to June 2011 and 8 counties saw net job reductions. There is a mixture of both Metro and Non-metro counties that show job increases and job losses.

Utah’s economy is gradually gaining strength with many positive indicators pointing to continuing improvement. If current trends continue, the state economy should surpass the overall job count of 2007 in 2013.

For non-metro counties, the industries that have the most jobs to recover their 2007 levels are construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. The most new jobs are found in local government, health care, and administrative support.

(1) Metro Counties—Box Elder, Cache, Davis, Juab, Morgan, Salt Lake, Summit, Tooele, Utah, Washington, and Weber.

(2) Non-metro Counties—Beaver, Carbon, Daggett, Duchesne, Emery, Garfield,Grand, Iron, Kane, Millard, Piute, Rich, San Juan, Sanpete, Sevier, Uintah, Wasatch, and Wayne.